The Future of Tibet

As we find ourselves again at the anniversary of the 1959 Lhasa uprising, it seems natural to wonder about what the future holds for Tibet. As far as any significant political breakthroughs, the situation for the foreseeable future remains quite bleak. There is no evidence that the current Chinese government has any interest in any kind of compromise, and no reason to believe that the next generation will, either. There might be a leadership struggle in Beijing in 2012, but, as far as Tibet is concerned, it is likely to be between bad and worse, or, perhaps, between two equally bad elements. Unless the power struggle is so destructive as to radically reduce the PRC’s ability to exercise power (which would necessarily also introduce a dangerous tendency toward chaos), it is very unlikely that it will result directly in a more conciliatory approach. Another change of leadership would be expected in 2022, and by then it’s hypothetically possible that a healthy liberalising trend would emerge, but that is a long way off.